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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still