A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
